Early August saw all the major forecasts for Atlantic basin storm activity being shaved(see table); with Klotzbach/Gray citing ‘dust outbreaks from Africa’, ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions and slightly cooler Sea Surface Temperature anomalies.

Before we get too carried away, take a look at the Average row above and you’ll notice that notwithstanding the fine tuning, all the forecasts are still calling for an above average Atlantic hurricane season for 2007. The graphic below (source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml) shows clearly that by far the busiest months of the season are August, September and October.

Right on cue we have some developments in the Atlantic/Caribbean to follow. Tropical Storm Dean is mid-Atlantic and heading towards the Lesser Antilles. Almost all the current models suggest this storm will intensify over the next few days and has the potential to be Cat 3 in three to five days, and a possibility of making US landfall.

Coincidentally, almost 15 years ago (16Aug1992) another storm formed on same spot: Andrew- let’s hope the similarities stop there.

Tags: ENSO, Forecasts, Hurricanes

This entry was posted by Paul Nunn on Tuesday, August 14th, 2007 at 2:07 pm and is filed under Exposure Management.