Today is generally considered to be the midpoint and peak of the Atlantic Season in terms of activity and the last two weeks have certainly helped to remind us. So far we have seen 10 named Tropical Storms, 5 Hurricanes and 3 Major (=Cat 3+) Hurricanes. Seasonal forecasters have responded by adjusting their estimates of activity levels upwards (NOAA , Klotzbach ).

The season kicked off early with Arthur, the first Tropical Storm to form in May since 1981. In July, after hitting the Yucatan Peninsula and causing 17 deaths in Guatemala Dolly made Cat 2 landfall in Texas, dropping nearly 16 inches of rain over South Padre Island.

August saw a busy month with Tropical Storms Edouard, Fay and Hanna and Hurricane Gustav all finding land. While Gustav could easily have cost much more, insurers move into September with Hurricane Ike the next threat. Ike has already made a direct hit on the Turks and Caicos Islands as a cat 4 on Sunday 7th September, weakening to a Cat 3 to hit Cuba later the same day. By Monday afternoon Ike had weakened along the country’s southern coast, 1.2 million Cubans had evacuated, and at least four people had died. Currently Ike has emerged into the southern Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, but likely to strengthen to a Cat 3 as it tracks towards a central Texas landfall later in the week.

Texas Governor, Rick Perry, has issued disaster declarations for 88 counties to help preparation for Ike. Having only just returned to offshore installations following Gustav, evacuations ahead of Ike are in full swing (10 rigs and 202 production platforms have been evacuated), and US oil and gas production in the western Gulf will be shut-in for at least two weeks.

Ike killed a further 66 Haitians, taking the total storm toll to over 1,000 deaths - much of which resulting form flooding associated with Hanna. As many as 600,000 people may need assistance, according to United Nations humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes.

Lloyd’s are releasing regular KML file updates (to Managing Agents) detailing TSRs latest Ike track forecasts and historical wind swaths enabling them to quickly assess the extent to which syndicate portfolios might be affected. Contact the Lloyd’s Exposure Management for more details.

Graph to show 2008 Huricane Season vs 1944-2002 Average

Table to show 2008 Huricane Season vs 1944-2002 Average
 

Tags: Arthur, Dolly, Fay, Forecasts, Gustav, Hanna, Hurricanes, Ike, TSR

This entry was posted by Paul Nunn on Wednesday, September 10th, 2008 at 1:26 pm and is filed under Exposure Management.