Lloyd’s 360 risk project’s latest report on climate change is all about “adaptation”.   For this report we teamed up with Risk Management Solutions, the catastrophe modelling company.  We looked at how much a 30cm sea level rise will increase flood risk for high risk coastal properties around the world and then considered how they can be strengthened (”adapted”) to keep the risk manageable.  Without such adaptation the findings of our case studies are sobering, in some cases average losses will more than double from just 30cm of rise. 

I recently came across a great example of how adaptation can help.  The picture shows the results of Hurricane Ike’s storm surge.  It starkly illustrates that well adapted properties fared very well; the fate of their neighbours was sadly different.

According to the Institute of Business and Home Safety the homes left standing had all been designed according to the standards they promote. The standards clearly worked. The IBHS is a non-profit organisation whose mission is to “…reduce the social and economic effects of natural disasters….”. Their standards are called “Fortified …for safer living”^® and are a practical list of adaptations that can be made to improve the resilience of property to natural disasters.

They address their advice to both homeowners and also builders. This is good to see; I think it’s crucial that the building industry is engaged when discussing adaptation. If builders aren’t aware of adaptation options they won’t discuss them with their clients, and an opportunity will have been missed. The IBHS’s 77 page “builders’ guide” gives a detailed breakdown of suggested safety measures ranging from landscaping to roof design. They also consider all types of peril across the United States including hurricanes, wildfires and flooding, each of which may already have been adversely affected by climate change. 

Our latest 360 report looks at various adaptation measures, some of which are broadly in common with those the IBHS recommend.  Working with RMS, we have quantified the reduction in average losses that adaptation would be expected to bring. We found in all cases that an appropriate combination of adaptation measures can reduce future risk to below current levels. Such modifications are not free; but we hope that, by illustrating the financial benefit of adaptation, consideration of costs versus benefits can be made.

Some scientists are talking about far more extreme sea level rises than 30cm by the end of the century. Professor David Smith speaking in our latest video, which accompanies the 360 report, suggests that 2m of rise by 2100 is quite possible.  So 30cm of rise could happen sooner than you think. We believe it is plausible that it could happen as early as 2030, which is well within business timeframes. Of course the pace of change could be slower than this. However, this just illustrates the uncertainties that climate change brings and the need to plan flexibly.

In the event of really extreme sea level rise the only option in some regions will be to move; they will quite literally be underwater. The IBHS state that in some areas, such as low lying barrier islands, some structures cannot be certified. They have clearly concluded that some areas are just too hard to protect; we can expect that the number of homes in this category will rise in future. However, for less exposed areas, and shorter timeframes, it is possible to adapt to changing risk.

Tags: Adaptation, Climate change

This entry was posted by Trevor Maynard on Tuesday, October 14th, 2008 at 1:23 pm and is filed under Exposure Management.