I’ve recently become aware of a worrying paper by Robert Repetto called The Climate Crisis and the Adaptation Myth (pdf).

Adaptation is the term used in climate-change circles to refer to actions taken to make infrastructure and processes more resistant and resilient to climate related harm.  Resistance means that whatever the hazard, it will be kept at bay for longer (eg a flood proof membrane to keep flood water out); and resilience means you bounce back quicker after an event (for example by putting kitchens and living spaces upstairs rather than downstairs for buildings in a flood plane).

Repetto’s report notes that many past studies have assumed that developed countries will adapt to climate change, and therefore for low temperature increases caused by climate change, the impacts will be contained. He goes on to show that assumptions don’t appear to match the way human beings and policymakers actually behave. He cites reasons for humans’ less than rational behaviour such as: the perverse incentives of state run insurance, where premium rates are less than the risk requires; or behavioural economics, which includes concepts like ‘anchoring’, where people struggle to move away from previously held beliefs.

He notes that many disaster plans are based on past events rather than forecasts from climate models and have repeatedly been shown to fail because of this.

His final chilling sentences read:

“Without national leadership and concerted efforts to remove these barriers and obstacles, adaptation to climate change is likely to continue to lag. It will be largely reactive rather than anticipatory and preventive, responding to damaging impacts once they have occurred. To say that the United States can adapt to climate change does not imply that the United States will adapt.”

Lloyd’s 360 project, working with Risk Management Solutions, produced a paper (pdf) in September last year on the benefits of adaptation. It showed that sea level rise of just 30cm could double average losses for some exposed properties; but that certain forms of adaptation could bring the risk back down to below current levels.

Repetto’s paper reminds us that even though adaptation can make sense it often happens too late, or not at all.

Repetto’s paper is on this website: www.climateactionproject.com

Tags: Adaptation, Climate change

This entry was posted by Trevor Maynard on Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 at 5:19 pm and is filed under Exposure Management.