The Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season officially begins on 1 June. With less than two weeks to go we thought this an opportune time to give you an update on how some of the most respected forecasters see the 2009 season.

In recent years the first named storm of the season has actually begun outside of the ‘official’ season. Last year Tropical Storm Arthur formed in the Gulf of Mexico on the 31 May. In 2007, Subtropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Barry both formed before 1 June.

It’s time to turn our attention to 2009 activity, and again, sooner than perhaps we had originally anticipated—Dr Jeff Masters’ Weather Underground blog  flagged up one storm to keep an eye on from the morning of 19 May.  The storm didn’t develop into a tropical storm, however, an interesting precursor to the season, as some areas in Florida are deluged by rainfall.

Historically, we’ve seen how forecasters have changed their forecasts over the season, and we’ll look to provide an update on this situation later this summer. However, as the season begins, here’s the latest from some of the more highly respected forecaster organisations:

The hurricane forecasters are predicting an average season, with an average/slightly above number of tropical storms and hurricanes forming when compared to the 1950-2000 baseline.

With reference to the heightened activity observed from 1995-2008, we may well be looking at an average season.

Just because the forecasts predict an average season, it doesn’t mean that the (re)insurance industry should sit back and relax: it’s not the number of storms that count, it’s the intensity and also if landfall is made.

So as ever, insurers and reinsurers need to keep a close eye as the season progresses. And let’s not forget that although we may have a focus on the Atlantic season, the Pacific Typhoon season  is also in progress—and from a nat cat perspective, every day is earthquake season…

Tags: Hurricanes

This entry was posted by Vinay Mistry on Friday, May 22nd, 2009 at 1:13 pm and is filed under Exposure Management.