Islamist terrorist activity is shifting from the Middle East to South Asia, according to security experts.

The Aon 2009 Terrorism Threat Map from Aon Crisis Management (2 June) shows a trend towards fewer terrorist attacks in the Middle East but increased activity in Pakistan, India and Afghanistan, with Thailand and Nepal also showing more incidents.

Produced in coordination with security consultancy firm Janusian, the map represents a snapshot of terrorist groups’ intent and capability and provides a graded indication of the current threat of attack in each country.

Terrorist groups with more traditional ideological leanings seem to be experiencing a resurgence, said Craig Preston, executive director at Aon, citing the communist Shining Path movement in Peru and a revolutionary anarchist movement in Greece as examples.

The global recession could produce a new generation of terrorists from disaffected communities and usher the return of class-based politics, he said: “This raises the prospect of new terrorist groups forming in the developed world on the far right and far left of the ideological spectrum.”

Although another major terrorist attack in a Western country by Islamists is possible, and there are signs of more sophisticated plots, the threat has subsided, Aon believes, as a result of improved intelligence and security.

“In general, operating conditions for terrorists have become more difficult in Western countries as well as in some Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia,” Preston said. “Also there’s a shift of focus among terrorist groups towards establishing new fronts in places like Pakistan and Somalia.”

>Download the map (pdf) from the Aon website or ask for a copy of the 2009 Terrorism Threat Map from Aon

Tags: Emerging risks, Risk management

This entry was posted by Garry Booth on Thursday, June 18th, 2009 at 10:09 am and is filed under Insurance Commentary.