Adaptation is the term used in climate-change circles to refer to actions taken to make infrastructure and processes more resistant and resilient to climate related harm.  Resistance means that whatever the hazard, it will be kept at bay for longer (eg a flood proof membrane to keep flood water out); and resilience means you bounce back quicker after an event (for example by putting kitchens and living spaces upstairs rather than downstairs for buildings in a flood plane).

Repetto’s report notes that many past studies have assumed that developed countries will adapt to climate change, and therefore for low temperature increases caused by climate change, the impacts will be contained. He goes on to show that assumptions don’t appear to match the way human beings and policymakers actually behave. He cites reasons for humans’ less than rational behaviour such as: the perverse incentives of state run insurance, where premium rates are less than the risk requires; or behavioural economics, which includes concepts like ‘anchoring’, where people struggle to move away from previously held beliefs.

He notes that many disaster plans are based on past events rather than forecasts from climate models and have repeatedly been shown to fail because of this.

His final chilling sentences read:

“Without national leadership and concerted efforts to remove these barriers and obstacles, adaptation to climate change is likely to continue to lag. It will be largely reactive rather than anticipatory and preventive, responding to damaging impacts once they have occurred. To say that the United States can adapt to climate change does not imply that the United States will adapt.”

Lloyd’s 360 project, working with Risk Management Solutions, produced a paper (pdf) in September last year on the benefits of adaptation. It showed that sea level rise of just 30cm could double average losses for some exposed properties; but that certain forms of adaptation could bring the risk back down to below current levels.

Repetto’s paper reminds us that even though adaptation can make sense it often happens too late, or not at all.

Repetto’s paper is on this website: www.climateactionproject.com

I recently came across a great example of how adaptation can help.  The picture shows the results of Hurricane Ike’s storm surge.  It starkly illustrates that well adapted properties fared very well; the fate of their neighbours was sadly different.

According to the Institute of Business and Home Safety the homes left standing had all been designed according to the standards they promote. The standards clearly worked. The IBHS is a non-profit organisation whose mission is to “…reduce the social and economic effects of natural disasters….”. Their standards are called “Fortified …for safer living”^® and are a practical list of adaptations that can be made to improve the resilience of property to natural disasters.

They address their advice to both homeowners and also builders. This is good to see; I think it’s crucial that the building industry is engaged when discussing adaptation. If builders aren’t aware of adaptation options they won’t discuss them with their clients, and an opportunity will have been missed. The IBHS’s 77 page “builders’ guide” gives a detailed breakdown of suggested safety measures ranging from landscaping to roof design. They also consider all types of peril across the United States including hurricanes, wildfires and flooding, each of which may already have been adversely affected by climate change. 

Our latest 360 report looks at various adaptation measures, some of which are broadly in common with those the IBHS recommend.  Working with RMS, we have quantified the reduction in average losses that adaptation would be expected to bring. We found in all cases that an appropriate combination of adaptation measures can reduce future risk to below current levels. Such modifications are not free; but we hope that, by illustrating the financial benefit of adaptation, consideration of costs versus benefits can be made.

Some scientists are talking about far more extreme sea level rises than 30cm by the end of the century. Professor David Smith speaking in our latest video, which accompanies the 360 report, suggests that 2m of rise by 2100 is quite possible.  So 30cm of rise could happen sooner than you think. We believe it is plausible that it could happen as early as 2030, which is well within business timeframes. Of course the pace of change could be slower than this. However, this just illustrates the uncertainties that climate change brings and the need to plan flexibly.

In the event of really extreme sea level rise the only option in some regions will be to move; they will quite literally be underwater. The IBHS state that in some areas, such as low lying barrier islands, some structures cannot be certified. They have clearly concluded that some areas are just too hard to protect; we can expect that the number of homes in this category will rise in future. However, for less exposed areas, and shorter timeframes, it is possible to adapt to changing risk.