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	<title>The Lloyd's Risk Blog &#187; Freddie mac</title>
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		<title>Bring a little sunshine</title>
		<link>http://blogs.lloyds.com/2008/09/08/bring-a-little-sunshine/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.lloyds.com/2008/09/08/bring-a-little-sunshine/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:39:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Garry Booth</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Insurance Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fannie mae]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Freddie mac]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.lloyds.com/?p=56</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Read the latest blog from the Reinsurance Rendez-vous in Monte Carlo]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">The air cleared a little in </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">Monte Carlo</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> on Monday. The clouds dispersed and the sun rose into an azure sky. But that couldn’t be the only reason that everyone here seemed to be smiling, slapping one another on the back, or lingering a little over an agreeable lunch.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">They had heard some good news. On Sunday the news had come over their Blackberries that the </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">US</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> government was taking over troubled mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and that share prices were picking up. Insurers and reinsurers have a big exposure to Freddie and Fannie so the news went down very well indeed on the terraces of the Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">Insurance CEOs &#8211; like everyone else &#8211; hope that what stands to be the largest bail-out in </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">US</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> history will prop up the country&#8217;s plunging housing market and ultimately stop the credit crunch going out of control.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">President Bush said the two firms had posed “an unacceptable risk” to the economy: between them Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae finance or guarantee nearly half of the outstanding mortgages in the </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">US</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">, and have lost billions of dollars during the </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">US</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> housing crash. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">“Of course we knew they would get on to it eventually &#8211; they had no choice,” one reinsurer told me. “But how nice to hear the news here.”</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">The rescue could cost the Federal government $200bn as it injects fresh capital into the limping mortgage giants to keep them solvent.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">That’s one less thing to worry about then. But as reinsurers keep reminding one another here, we are in a softening market at a time of stock market troubles and an overall deteriorating environment. Add to that the spectre of nat cats (anyone got the latest on Ike?).</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">Without Ike, insured losses up to </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">September 1 2008</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> increased by 20% compared to the same period in 2007. So, CEOs keep telling us, we are seeing an uptick in nat cat losses against a background of meagre investment returns thanks to low interest rates. It is not like the late Nineties. Your investment portfolio won’t compensate for claims costs. Get used to it.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">But don’t stay too focussed on nat cats and property business. Delegates here keep returning to their fears for the liability lines of business and the background to that is inflation. Increasing medical and social costs especially, spell trouble for all. We’re sort of used to it in the </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">US</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> but according to Jacques Aigrain, CEO of Swiss Re, </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">Europe</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;"> is experiencing an acceleration in long tail line claims costs.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">Like his peers, Aigrain espouses underwriting discipline (a phrase you hear a lot in </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">Monte Carlo</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">). The Swiss Re boss impressed everyone with his repeated claim that they will leave money on the table rather than write business that stresses their margins. At the halfway point, Swiss Re has cut or replaced 21% of its total traditional portfolio, he said.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">“That’s good,” said one investment analyst, “But if this market persists, you won’t have any business left.” But Aigrain had an answer for that saying that reinsurers should be preparing for the hard market &#8211; and you don’t do that by writing too much in the soft cycle</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt; color: #000000; font-family: Arial;">.</span></p>
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