Did you see the weather forecast? I mean the long range forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity.
In the US, highly respected wind watchers Philip Klotzbach and William M Grey of the University of Colorado department of atmospheric science have put their money on the 2010 hurricane season being “somewhat more active” than the average 1950-2000 season.
 After [...]

Tags: Hurricanes

According to their press release on 23 September “Students studying risk management and natural hazards-related subjects will soon benefit from scholarships to be offered by the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) ”
The CCRIF is the Caribbean insurance pool which pays out when certain parametric earthquake or hurricane indices reach a threshold.  The pool provides [...]

Tags: Climate change, Emerging risks, Hurricanes, Natural catastrophes

The Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane Season officially begins on 1 June. With less than two weeks to go we thought this an opportune time to give you an update on how some of the most respected forecasters see the 2009 season.
In recent years the first named storm of the season has actually begun outside [...]

Tags: Hurricanes

Some of the world’s top hurricane scientists met with insurers and delegates at Princeton University recently to talk about the advances being made in modelling a category three hurricane blasting through the New York metropolitan area.
The gathering, organized by the Willis Research Network (WRN), heard how a perfect storm and its accompanying storm surge could [...]

Tags: cat models, Hurricanes, Natural catastrophes

2008 will be remembered as a year of significant natural catastrophe losses. Munich Re and Swiss Re have suggested industry losses of between USD40-50bn for 2008 alone, with PCS (Property Claim Services) reporting US losses of around USD25bn. Much of the focus has been headline losses, including Hurricanes Ike and Gustav, and these events have [...]

Tags: Financial, Hurricanes, Ike, Large Loss

 by Dishni Payagalage-Don 
Reaching the end of the Atlantic Hurricane season we can stop and reflect at what has been an eventful and record breaking year; five major hurricanes, eight tropical storms and a total of 16 named storms. Pre-season forecasts in December 2007 suggested that we should expect an ‘above average’ season (ie relative [...]

Tags: Atlantic, CCRIF, Gustav, Hurricanes, Ike, Season, TSR

Today is generally considered to be the midpoint and peak of the Atlantic Season in terms of activity and the last two weeks have certainly helped to remind us. So far we have seen 10 named Tropical Storms, 5 Hurricanes and 3 Major (=Cat 3+) Hurricanes. Seasonal forecasters have responded by adjusting their estimates of [...]

Tags: Arthur, Dolly, Fay, Forecasts, Gustav, Hanna, Hurricanes, Ike, TSR

What a difference a day (or two) makes. Having seen the devastation that Gustav wreaked on Cuba (and Haiti), I watched the forecastors’ projections on Sunday morning with a sense of foreboding and déjà vu. Almost three years to the day after the devastation of Katrina, Gustav was set to traverse the Gulf of Mexico, Cat [...]

Tags: Energy, Gulf of Mexico, Gustav, Henry Hub, Hurricanes, LOOP, New Orleans

 
Tropical Storm Dolly is heading for the Mexico \ Texas border this morning and has prompted a rash of evacuations of non-essential staff from offshore platforms (see here, here), although currently production is not expected to be affected. The National Hurricane Centre’s (NHC) central forecast is for landfall around Brownesville, TX although some models put [...]

Tags: Dolly, Energy, Hurricanes

Early August saw all the major forecasts for Atlantic basin storm activity being shaved(see table); with Klotzbach/Gray citing ‘dust outbreaks from Africa’, ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions and slightly cooler Sea Surface Temperature anomalies.
Before we get too carried away, take a look at the Average row above and you’ll notice that notwithstanding the [...]

Tags: ENSO, Forecasts, Hurricanes