Thankfully, unlike Katrina, Gustav’s structure was too disorganised to take the opportunity to intensify as it passed over the warm Loop Current, and further weakened as it approached landfall as a Cat 2 hurricane. Today, as reports come in, almost all the news has been positive:

• New Orleans’ levees just about coped with the tidal surge – overtopping but not failing
• Coast Guard flyovers showed that all platforms in the Gulf are in place and that energy infrastructure suffered no significant damage (here)
• Sabine has partially lifted ‘force majeure’ at Henry Hub, a major natural gas interconnection point, which allows companies to depart from contract terms in the event of a natural disaster
• The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) said it is optimistic it can restart operations “fairly quickly”
• Based on post-landfall data catastrophe modelling firms have lower (and narrower) ranges of estimates for onshore damage and insured losses. AIR are estimating $2bn to $4.5bn, while EQECAT and RMS both settle on $3bn to $7bn.

If these estimates are borne out by actual claim experience (once damages have been fully assessed) Gustav will be very much a business-as-usual hurricane rather than the mega-catastrophe it nearly was.

Detailed maps of Gustav’s windfield are available to all Lloyd’s managing agents – contact the Exposure Management team.

Lloyd’s policyholders affected by the hurricane should read more in the policyholder advice section of lloyds.com.